Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

The occurrence and function of the sphragis in the zerynthiine genera Zerynthia,Allancastria and Bhutanitis (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea: Papilionidae)

In some butterfly species males attach a large external mating plug termed a sphragis to the female abdomen during mating. This is derived from male accessory secretions and covers the female ostium bursae and surrounding areas, thus preventing or delaying remating. Specimens of all 12 species of the genera Zerynthia, Allancastria and Bhutanitis (Lepidoptera: papilionidae), which form a natural clade within the Zerynthiini, were examined for presence or absence of a sphragis and their male and female genitalia were studied. In all three genera female genitalia lack a typical sinus vaginalis and the sterigma is modified to form an exposed, shiny, well-sclerotized genital plate, derived from the fusion and expansion of the lamellae ante- and postvaginales. The exposed ostium bursae is situated near the posterior end of the genital plate in Zerynthia, whereas in Allancastria and Bhutanitis it is near the anterior end. A crude irregularly formed sphragis was found at least facultatively in all species. The sphragides of Zerynthia and Bhutanitis were generally poorly developed, in most cases only partially covering the female genital plate. In Allancastria the sphragis mostly covered the genital plate entirely, and generally incorporated numerous long scales derived from the male’s 8th abdominal segment; scales were sometimes sparse or absent, probably due to depletion from repeated matings by males. In Zerynthia, males lacked the dense terminal abdominal tuft of elongated scales found in Allancastria, and their sphragis lacked scales. The sphragis of Bhutanitis thaidina incorporated scales from the male valves, whereas in the B. lidderdalii sphragis (and probably B. ludlowi) the scales derived from the male’s 8th abdominal segment. The role of the scales and possible reasons for the difference in the development of the sphragis among these genera are discussed.     

Effect of MWCNT reinforcement on the precipitation-hardening behavior of AA2219

Aluminum alloy matrix composites have found a predominant place in research, and their applications are explored in almost all industries. The aerospace industry has been using precipitation-hardenable alloys in structural applications. However, insufficient literature is available on the influence of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) on precipitation-hardenable alloy composite materials; thus, this work was designed to elucidate the effect on MWCNT reinforcement on AA2219 with and without precipitation hardening. Reinforcement with MWCNTs has been reported to accelerate precipitation and to achieve greater hardness within a much shorter time. The addition of 0.75wt% MWCNTs resulted in maximal hardness at 90 min, which is approximately 27% of improvement over the maximum hardness achieved by the corresponding monolithic alloy after 10 h of aging. The sample reinforced with 0.75wt% MWCNTs showed an improvement of 82% in hardness by solutionizing and aging compared to that achieved by sintering.     

Variations on a theme: Clifford’s parallelism in elliptic space

In 1873, W. K. Clifford introduced a notion of parallelism in the three-dimensional elliptic space that, quite surprisingly, exhibits almost all properties of Euclidean parallelism in ordinary space. The purpose of this paper is to describe the genesis of this notion in Clifford’s works and to provide a historical analysis of its reception in the investigations of F. Klein, L. Bianchi, G. Fubini, and E. Bortolotti. Special emphasis is placed upon the important role that Clifford’s parallelism played in the development of the theory of connections.     

On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.